—Will Russia Use Iraq to Grab Iran?DFO91410 April 1980
1. IF IRAQ WANTS TO TAKE IRAN WITH RUSSIA'S HELP, THEY COULDN'T CHOOSE A MORE IDEAL TIME! Iran is in a state of confusion & the government is practically falling apart & the army & navy are falling apart already. Iran could in no way protect itself. About all it's got is a motley army of ragamuffin Revolutionary Guard or people's army. Every little nobody in the country's got a gun, & some are pretty antique!
2. THEY COULD HARDLY FACE THE MILITARY MIGHT OF IRAQ, which has a very well armed, highly disciplined army, one of the most powerful in the whole Mideast, supplied, trained & backed by Russia for years. Iraq is on the West side of Iran & was ancient Mesopotamia to the Greeks & the Romans, & before that it was Assyria‚ & before that it was Babylon‚ etc.
3. IT'S AN IDEAL TIME FOR IRAQ TO ATTACK IRAN when Afghanistan has been taken over on the other side‚ on the East side, by the Russians. Normally the Russians don't do their own fighting, they have their client states or satellites fight for them, so it won't look like they're doing anything.
4. THIS IS WHY IT'S SO RARE FOR RUSSIA TO INVADE A COUNTRY ITSELF like it did Afghanistan. This is why the U.S. & the Western World puts up such a big fuss about it! It's so ridiculous, when they have taken over many countries by proxy! They usually just stir up the people themselves to overthrow their government & establish a pro-Russian pro-Communist government, or stir up against them some neighbouring government that's pro-Russian, like Ethiopia vs. Somalia.
5. LOOK AT WHAT AN IDEAL TIME IT IS FOR IRAQ TO DECIDE TO FIGHT IRAN, maybe even invade it! It'd be a pushover right now with Afghanistan on the other side neutralised by the Russians by their having taken it over, & is maybe all part of their plan. The Afghans can't go to the aid of the Iranians since the Russians have taken over.
6. PAKISTAN BEGAN ACTING NEUTRAL after some visits of top–level Russian diplomats who probably promised the peace & bought them off if they'd just stay out of it. So then Pakistan turned around & turned down the American offer of 400 million dollars worth of arms, & quite offended Carter & his administration because Pakistan refused their military help, except in case they should be invaded.
7. INDIA HAS VERY GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE RUSSIANS & is trying to play a definitely neutral role. India's much more slanted toward the Russians than she is toward the Americans, & Pakistan & India are already bitter enemies. The Russians probably put the screws on Pakistan & said: "Well, we over here & the Indians over there promise to leave you alone if you'll just stay out of it!"
8. SO NOW THE RUSSIANS PRETTY WELL HAVE THIS WHOLE AREA UNDER THEIR CONTROL, or at least neutralised. They also have Baghdad over here to the East, longtime bitter enemies of the Iranians who would be happy to invade them & punish them & take the war right to Tehran. Look at your map: It isn't very far from Baghdad to Tehran‚ only about 500 miles! (Maria: Baghdad's the capital of Iraq?) Yes, Baghdad's the capital of Iraq.
9. IRAQ HAS OIL FIELDS DOWN NEAR BASRA—does that ring a bell, Basra? Remember that's where I said the invasion of Israel would come from, from Basra? The only questionable thing about it is that there are two Basra's—there's one in Iraq & there's one in southern Syria! So which one it is we don't know.
10. ANYHOW, IRAQ IS IN A VERY EASY POSITION TO GRAB THE IRANIAN OILFIELDS or even invade Iran & completely take over Tehran with Russian backing—especially while Tehran & Khomeini are fooling around thumbing their nose at the U.S. over the hostages & acting so smart like they can get away with it! So it'd be an ideal time for Iraq to invade Iran at the behest of the Russians.
11. EVERYBODY'S BEEN EXPECTING MAYBE THE RUSSIANS WOULD DO IT, being so strong in Afghanistan & all around the East side. It's like a fighter feinting, f-e–i-n-t-i-n-g. Feinting or fooling an opponent in fighting a war also. You make an enemy think you're invading over here, & all the time you're planning to really do your pushing over there!
12. IT WOULD BE FAR EASIER FOR THE RUSSIANS TO BACK THE IRAQIS TO INVADE IRAN & grab the oil fields, as a longtime traditional enemy of the Iranians, & be able to blame it on the Iraqis. (Maria: Oh, the oil fields are in Iran‚ huh?) In Iran, Iraq & Kuwait mostly, right around the head of the Persian Gulf. Iraq, as ancient Mesopotamia, Assyria & Babylon‚ was the cradle of civilisation. It was probably the location of the Garden of Eden, as two of Asia's greatest rivers mentioned in Genesis 2:14 flow right through Iraq as they did through the Garden of Eden—the Tigris & the Euphrates!
13. IT WOULD BE CERTAINLY A CLEVER THING if they were doing all this over in Afghanistan just to draw attention over there, making everybody think they were taking Afghanistan so they could drive through to the Arabian Sea to get a south-sea warm water port like Karachi, when actually right now they are probably less interested in a port down there than they are in these oil fields in Iran!
14. THEY'D HAVE IRAQ GRAB ALL THESE OIL FIELDS FOR THEM & KNOCK IRAN COMPLETELY OUT OF ACTION! That would be about the smartest thing they could do to completely take over the whole area! Dear Turkey was once very friendly to the U.S. & the U.S. very friendly to them, but now the U.S. is mad at Turkey because of Turkey's invasion of Cyprus to rescue its poor persecuted slaughtered massacred Turkish Cypriot minority there! Turkey had to literally take their share of the Island by force, which they certainly deserve to have after all those years of persecution & massacres, or the Turkish Cypriots would have been wiped out by the Greeks! (See "The Sword of the Lord!" No.309A.)
15. THE TREMENDOUS POWERFUL GREEK-JEWISH LOBBY IN THE U.S. has influenced the whole World to sympathise with the Greek Cypriots against the Turkish Cypriots just because the Turks came in there & grabbed by force what should have belonged to the Turkish Cypriots all the time!
16. BUT THE POOR TURKISH CYPRIOTS WERE SO OUTNUMBERED—FOUR-TO-ONE—ONLY ONE-FIFTH OF THE POPULATION OF CYPRUS—they never did have a chance of having any equal rights or anything in Cyprus, voting against four times as many Greeks! They were constantly horribly persecuted, as you & I know—we were there! So Turkey finally did the right thing & just grabbed the Turkish Cypriots' share of the Island by force! But this turned the U.S.‚ the U.N. & almost the whole World against poor Turkey, so the poor Turks have been isolated ever since!
17. THE U.S. HAS BEEN LITERALLY TRYING TO BANKRUPT TURKEY & BRING DOWN ITS GOVERNMENT! But the U.S. is just cutting off its nose to spite its face, when they need Turkey as just about their only friend in this whole Mideast area, as a bulwark between Russia & Israel & the oil! But instead of that, because these damned U.S. Greek-Jews are so powerful & their lobby in Congress & in the States so strong, they have managed to get the whole World sympathising with Greek Cypriots & have turned everybody against the Turks!
18. IF THE WEST CONTINUES TO BE SO HARD ON THE TURKS, THE TURKS WILL HAVE TO TURN TO RUSSIA, who is right there on their border! Actually the border of Russia runs along the northern borders of both Turkey & Iran!—So that Russia is not even that far from Tehran either!
19. THE BORDER OF RUSSIA IS NOT MORE THAN ABOUT 150 MILES FROM TEHRAN, whereas Baghdad itself is only about 500! But instead of strengthening Turkey, which is supposed to be a part of NATO & a friend of the West, the U.S. is doing everything it can to try to bring about the downfall of the Turkish government & bankrupt & weaken Turkey—all because of its occupation of only one-third of Cyprus to protect its poor Turkish Cypriots! The Herald Tribune had a whole section on Cyprus, & it's all almost totally on Greek Cyprus & totally in sympathy with Greek Cypriots & very antagonistic against Turkish Cyprus.
20. THE TURKS TOOK OVER A GOOD ONE–THIRD OR TWO–FIFTHS OF CYPRUS with some of the best tourist areas, but they're having a hard time making it because the rest of the World—especially the U.S. Jews—have done everything they can to cripple them & make it tough on them.—Whereas they've poured millions of dollars into Greek Cyprus! The U.S. & UN are giving 50 million dollars worth of aid to Greek Cyprus every year, but nothing to Turkish Cyprus! Isn't that something? So Greek Cyprus now is booming & thriving economically & building prosperously, while poor Turkey & its Cypriots have the whole World against them!
21. IRAQ ATTACKING IRAN NOW COULDN'T POSSIBLY CHOOSE A BETTER PSYCHOLOGICAL TIME, when most Americans would say‚ "Hurrah!—Just what the Iranians deserve!"—not realising they are really cheering one of Russia's friends & backers! I think even if the Russians decided to attack Tehran the Americans would cheer, except they're worried about their oil.
22. IRAQ'S GOT LOTS OF OIL & SO DOES IRAN, so if Iraq grabs Iran they'll have plenty of oil, & then controlled pretty much by the Russians.—And the Iraqis already get most of their arms from the Russians. So that would be a very interesting development! You get the picture?
23. IT COULDN'T BE A MORE IDEAL TIME POLITICALLY EITHER: IRAN'S GOVERNMENT IS IN CHAOS! It couldn't be a more ideal time militarily as Iran's military is in chaos too!—And it couldn't be a more ideal time internationally‚ because the international community is pretty much against Iran right now because of their ridiculous treatment of the hostages, & this nut that's running things!
24. SO THERE WAS NEVER A MORE IDEAL TIME FOR IRAQ TO PICK TO ATTACK IRAN in which the Americans would sympathise!—Maybe not the U.S. government but the people in general. The U.S. government probably won't sympathise with them, because the government realises the significance of it, that Iraq is backed by Russia, & Iraq would merely be a stooge, puppet & proxy for Russia to take over Iran.—And I wouldn't be a bit surprised if that's exactly what they're planning!
25. —AND WHAT COULD THE U.S. DO ABOUT IT?—NOTHING! Iraq is an independent sovereign country, & if she wants to go to war with Iran, what could the U.S. do about it?—And Iraq couldn't do it at a time when more Americans would sympathise with Iraq & say, "Well, good for the Iraqis! It's what the Iranians deserve!"—And if they would attack Iran in such a way as to cause the Iranians to give up the hostages, the whole U.S. would cheer, you know that!
26. I WAS THINKING MAYBE RUSSIA WAS GOING TO TRY TO RELEASE THE HOSTAGES, because the Americans, if they'd ever sympathise with the Russians, it would be then! If the Russians would step in & actually invade Iran & rescue the American hostages, you know the average American would cheer!: "God bless the Russians!"
27. BUT RUSSIA'S BEING CONDEMNED FOR INVADING AFGHANISTAN & the U.S. Government would condemn her for invading Iran, as the U.S. would be very worried about the oil down there. So the U.S. warned Russia not to invade Iran!: "Watch out!" Carter said, "We'd consider that an attack upon U.S. interests if Russia goes any further!" In other words, Carter warned them not to take advantage of the situation there.
28. BUT WHO'S GOING TO STOP IRAQ‚ IRAN'S TRADITIONAL ENEMY, from taking advantage of the situation & attacking Iran? And what could the U.S. say, what could they do to protest‚ when Khomeini himself has been broadcasting on the radio & stirring up the Iraqi Moslems to rise up & overthrow the Iraqi government! You understand what I mean? I mean, that's sufficient provocation for any nation to rise up and attack when another nation is suggesting that their own people rise up & attack them & overthrow them!
29. SO IRAQ STARTED DEPORTING ALL THE IRANIANS as fast as they could—at the same time the U.S. was deporting Iranians, by the way!—Ha! In fact, Iraq beat them to the gun!—They started first! So it's a very interesting situation. (Maria: Then Iran would have a new leadership & all the hostages would get back home!)—Amen! If that's what the Russians are up to, it certainly is a smart play.
30. THE RUSSIANS ALSO DIDN'T WANT TO TAKE A CHANCE ON AFGHANISTAN, to make sure that Pakistan, which has one of the biggest armies in the whole Mideast, didn't make any moves that direction to rescue either Afghanistan or Iran. Because Pakistan has long been a U.S. ally. The U.S. was even an ally of Pakistan against India! When Bangladesh decided to break loose from Pakistan because of the horrible way they were being treated by Pakistan, the Pakistanis used U.S. arms, tanks, guns & planes against them!—Remember?
31. THE U.S. HELPED CRUEL PAKISTAN IN THAT WAR AGAINST THOSE POOR PEOPLE OF BANGLADESH, until finally the Indians stepped in to rescue them!—And what did the Indians find facing them?—Pakistani troops with U.S. arms, U.S. tanks, U.S. planes, U.S. guns, U.S. ammunition, & U.S.-trained soldiers! In other words‚ India was literally fighting a U.S. ally in that war, so India has been pretty soured on the U.S. ever since! India rescued Bangladesh from Pakistan & the U.S., & gave it its freedom; the only way Bangladesh has been able to exist is by Indian protection & help.
32. SO PAKISTAN HAS BEEN A LONGTIME ALLY OF THE U.S.‚ & the only government that was apt to threaten the Russian take-over of Afghanistan was Pakistan‚ & the only government that might have resisted a Russian invasion of Iran might have been Pakistan. In other words, the U.S. might have used Pakistan just like Russia may use Iraq to try to grab Iran!
33. WELL, THE RUSSIANS HAVE BEAT THEM TO THE DRAW, NEUTRALISED PAKISTAN, & Russia's on the move!—It looks like Iraq is too!—And Iran is the plum, the prize!—A tiny helpless sick country that is in a horrible mess & couldn't possibly defend itself!
34. IRAN'S DRIVEN OUT, KILLED, SLAUGHTERED OR EXECUTED NEARLY ALL THEIR BRAINS, THEIR BRILLIANT EDUCATED LEADERS! You run into them all over Europe now. (Maria: Yes, but maybe they got a few of them back when the U.S. deported them all!...) Well, those are the new diplomats of the Iranian Revolution, so I wouldn't say how much brains they've got!
35. THEY'VE SLAUGHTERED THEIR LEADERS & THEIR GENERALS WHO WERE ABLE TO RUN THE COUNTRY & THE ARMY & so on, & they've got a motley crowd of the young poor now trying to run the country! I don't think they're going to get very far with it, & everybody else is pretty well convinced of it too. Tehran is literally in a state of almost chaos & anarchy, & nobody will do anything except what Khomeini tells them to do!
36. THE NEW IRANIAN GOVERNMENT IS HELPLESS & can't do anything‚ as even the new elected President, Bani Sadr, is overruled by Khomeini! So Iran is literally almost in a state of collapse, & about the only thing they've been able to hold onto is the hostages! They brag about that as their great victory over the U.S., when they can't even govern their own country or run their own industries right!
37. IT SURE WOULD BE FUNNY IF THE RUSSIANS USED THE IRAQIS TO DRIVE IN THERE & RESCUE THE U.S. HOSTAGES! How could the U.S. then refuse if the Iraqis then kept Iran as a prize?—Especially if they promised to sell the U.S. the oil! Very interesting! We shall see. PTL! Russia's right there ready to grab what they can, & has almost got Iran surrounded already!—This is what I'm trying to show you: Afghanistan taken, Pakistan neutralised, the Russian border right next to Turkey & Iran, just a few miles from Tehran, & Turkey already offended by the U.S. & NATO.
38. IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH FOR THE U.S.S.R. TO BEFRIEND THE TURKS & perhaps persuade them to help them, or if nothing else neutralise them. The Russians could say, "Well‚ you stay out of it & we'll leave you alone!"—That's how they did it with Pakistan. So if they can keep Pakistan & Turkey out of it, the rest of them are already out of it.—With Iraq under Russian control, armed & directed by them.
39. THIS WOULD BE THE IDEAL TIME FOR IRAQ & RUSSIA TO GRAB IRAN! (Maria: Sure would, wow!) And all the time the U.S. is threatening, threatening & rattling the sabre against Russia, but what can the U.S. do against Iraq if Iraq decides this is the time to invade Iran? What can Carter do?—Nothing! Most Americans would sympathise with Iraq against Iran because of the hostages!
40. —SO IF RUSSIA & IRAQ MISS THIS GOLDEN HOSTAGE OPPORTUNITY to be the heroic rescuers‚ with the sympathy of the American people, they've really missed the boat!—And if it starts another war, you'd better not miss yours to South America!—Ha! GBAKY!—Love, Dad