—Mideast Explodes Again And Starts Big One!January 6, 1974GP No.289
P.O. Box 31, London WC2E 7LX, England or BP 752, 75123 Paris Cedex 03, France
1. NOW WHY OF ALL THINGS AT THIS MOMENT SHOULD EGYPT BE CLAIMING THE OIL WAR'S NOT HURTING ENOUGH, when the oil war has really been so successful in shaking up the world and making them pay attention to the Arab claims‚ and really been hurting America, too—why would Egypt at this particular moment be claiming it wasn't hurting and that it's not doing the job and hurting the U.S. enough? She says: "The oil war is ineffective!"
2. WHY WOULD EGYPT NOW SAY THIS WEAPON IS NOT EFFECTIVE? BECAUSE THEY WANT TO USE ANOTHER WEAPON! Now there's another reason: Is Egypt an oil state? No. Who was agitating of for the oil war in the first place?—Gaddafi!—Right? Whose idea was the immediate tank war?—Sadat's. Gaddafi was for war, but first for fighting them with oil, then a concerted military effort.
3. GADDAFI FELT THAT SADAT WAS JUMPING THE GUN in his hurry to get some self–glory and strengthen his own personal domestic position at home, which was beginning to wane in the face of Gaddafi's popularity and glamour, and so Sadat went right ahead. Gaddafi was also left out at Algiers, where the Arabs probably decided what their policy would be if Israel wouldn't give in.
4. SO NOW ISRAEL HAS JUST HAD AN ELECTION AND WHAT DID THAT SHOW?—THAT SHE WAS GOING TO TAKE A TOUGHER HARDER LINE, more uncompromising than ever, fewer concessions than ever, and the U.S. says she's going to stand behind her.
5. GADDAFI WAS PREACHING OIL WAR—weaken the enemy, really put the squeeze on them and bring them to their knees in surrender by putting worldwide pressure on Israel's friends—as well as attack if she didn't give in.
6. THE OIL WAR MAY BE HURTING SOME OF THE ARABS' FRIENDS AS WELL AS THEIR FOES, BUT THIS MEANS THAT EUROPE, ASIA, JAPAN, ETC.‚ WILL BE PUTTING ALL THE MORE PRESSURE ON AMERICA to meet the Arabs' demands. It's pressuring the whole world to put pressure on America, even if it's not hurting America as much directly. So the Arabs know what they're doing and the oil war is succeeding.
7. HOWEVER, SADAT'S POLICY WAS TO ATTACK NOW AND TALK LATER, and maybe he could win a quick victory which would glamorise his own position at home as opposed to Gaddafi's as leader of the Arab World.
8. WELL, THE OUTCOME OF THE WAR PROVED SADAT WAS WRONG AND GADDAFI WAS RIGHT! They weren't prepared for it and Sadat almost lost the war, and would have if he hadn't made an immediate appeal to Moscow to ask the States to stop it.
9. SO NOW WHAT DOES SADAT HAVE TO DO TO TRY TO PROVE HE WAS RIGHT or make it look like he was right?—First, he's got to give his excuses and make them apparent to the world: It's like Sadat's saying: "You see the oil weapon is not working.—Gaddafi is wrong! You can't put enough squeeze on the people through the oil embargo because it's hurting the Arab's friends more than America‚ Israel's friend"
10. "AND, YOU SEE, BY ISRAEL'S ELECTION SHE'S SHOWING SHE DOESN'T INTEND TO GIVE IN to pressure, compromise or concede, and America's swearing she'll stand behind her and never let her down no matter what."
11. "SO THERE'S ONLY ONE SOLUTION: LET'S FINISH THE WAR!" So Sadat has been stepping up the incidents along the front.—There were 72 in one day—those cease-fire violations, and they claim most are started by the Egyptians. Well, if you were planning to resume fighting while you still had a chance during the truce or cease-fire, what would you be doing?
12. THESE LITTLE SHOOTING MATCHES ARE TESTS—THEY ARE PROBING THE ISRAELI LINES to see where their strengths are, testing the lines—a common military practice—to see where they're located, where their tanks and guns are. Because when they fire, the Israelis fire back and this betrays their tanks and positions.
13. MEANWHILE, THE SO–CALLED CEASE-FIRE HAS GAINED THE VERY TIME THAT EGYPT NEEDED to gain three things: She has been able to restock her military supplies from Russia. She's been able to re–establish and strengthen her positions in the Suez, including the now almost total encirclement of the Israeli spearhead on the West Bank.
14. WHILE THE ISRAELI'S HAVE EGYPT'S THIRD ARMY TRAPPED ON THE EAST BANK, EGYPT NOW HAS ISRAEL'S INVADING ARMY CIRCLED AND TRAPPED ON THE WEST BANK—tit for tat! This is pretty common knowledge now, and in gaining this time Egypt has accomplished exactly what it wanted to do: To surround that Israeli army that has invaded Egypt‚ which she did not have time to do when she was surprised by the invasion and the ceasefire.
15. AND FINALLY, EGYPT IS, AS WE'VE JUST SAID, TRYING TO PROVE TO THE WORLD THAT GADDAFI'S OIL WAR IS NOT WORKING AND ISRAEL'S ATTITUDE IS STIFFENING instead of yielding, as evidenced by the recent election, so that now Egypt is in a very strengthened position to resume the war with the excuse that:
16. "YOU SEE, THE ISRAELIS ARE NOT GOING TO SURRENDER OUR TERRITORY ANYWAY‚ SO WE MIGHT AS WELL GO AHEAD AND TAKE IT, and Gaddafi was wrong about the oil war. It's not doing any good, so now is the time!"
17. MEANWHILE, THOUGH ISRAEL WOULD LIKE TO STRIKE FIRST AND FINISH THE WAR HERSELF AND MARCH ON CAIRO, SHE DOESN'T DARE because of world pressure to the contrary. America will not let Israel go down, but neither will she tolerate her pushing the Arabs any further, because the oil war is hurting!
18. SO AMERICA IS ALL FOR WAITING, TALKING AND NOT ATTACKING, while Egypt—and probably Russia, too—knows that Egypt is now in a better position to attack and probably can gain more by attacking than talking.
19. SO EGYPT IS THINKING: "WHY WAIT FOR THE TALKS, while in the meantime Israel will strengthen her positions and get all this war material replenished by the U.S. and dictate the peace terms to her own liking, or Israel herself choose the time and place of attack if she knows the Arabs are not going to accept them?"
20. SO FRANKLY, I BELIEVE RIGHT NOW IS THE BEST TIME FOR THE ARABS TO ATTACK under Sadat's policy. He has got to finish the war militarily now or admit he was wrong in starting it in the first place. He's got to go ahead and show he can gain more by fighting than talking and that Gaddafi's oil war isn't working, so Sadat can win his political war on the home front as well as his military war on the Suez front.
21. IF EGYPT WAITS, AMERICA AND RUSSIA AND THE U.N. AND THE WORLD IN GENERAL MIGHT IMPOSE SOME KIND OF AN ENFORCED PEACE settlement on the Egyptians and the Israelis which would be a compromise not only unsatisfactory to the Israelis but much more unsatisfactory to the Arabs. Because the Israelis can be almost thankful to keep anything, whereas what the Arabs would really like to get is everything.
22. SO ANY PEACE SETTLEMENT WHICH IS A RESULT OF NEGOTIATIONS IS MUCH MORE APT TO BE IN FAVOUR OF THE ISRAELIS THAN THE ARABS, considering what the Arabs want. And America and the Israelis are not about to begin to give them Jerusalem, the Golan Heights and the West Bank of the Jordan.
23. BUT THE ARABS HAVE SAID THEY'LL SETTLE FOR NOTHING LESS and you can't much blame them because it is their territory. But Israel has already promised they're not going to get it, and it is very doubtful that even American pressure could cause Israel to give them up.
24. I BELIEVE ISRAEL WOULD FIGHT FIRST before doing so. So Sadat is thinking‚ "Why wait until Israel starts fighting for what she can't keep around the negotiating table?" And I'm sure Egypt is thinking, "Why wait until even more U.N. troops are poured in between the armies, making it even more complicated and there's a more pressured disengagement of forces?"
25. EGYPT'S IN A MUCH BETTER POSITION MILITARILY RIGHT NOW TO ATTACK while she's got that Israeli army in palm of her hand and sizeable forces on the East Bank and no peace agreement and no peace offers have yet been made that she has to refuse. It looks to me like she's in a much better position to attack right now than latter.
26. SO REALLY EGYPT HAS MORE TO GAIN THAN TO LOSE BY ATTACKING RIGHT NOW. Even if she were eventually stopped, she would probably get far enough to be in a much stronger position at the bargaining table by capturing the Israeli army that's on her shore—the West Bank of the Canal—and holding them hostage like Israel has been holding Egypt's Third Army on the other shore‚ the East Bank, which is what caused Egypt to sue for a ceasefire.
27. BUT NOW EGYPT HAS ISRAEL'S WEST-BANK ARMY IN HER GRASP and she just needs a good excuse to resume the fighting. So she's using the claimed failure of the oil war and the results of the recent Israeli election as her excuses. So if Egypt attacks now and gains anything at all, she'll be in a better position and so will Sadat, and she figures she has very little to lose by it.
28. BECAUSE EGYPT NOW HAS THAT ISRAELI FORCE SURROUNDED AND CAIRO MUCH BETTER PROTECTED, and so she has possibly everything to gain by striking now and capturing that entire West-Bank Israeli army as well as possibly making a major push into Sinai and liberating her Third Army on the East Bank.
29. SO THEREBY ISRAEL'S MILITARY THREAT TO CAIRO AND EAST BANK STRANGLEHOLD COULD BE BROKEN AND SHE'D NO LONGER HAVE ANY ADVANTAGE AT THE NEGOTIATING TABLE. Previously Israel was holding Egypt's whole Third Army hostage, really captured, and was ready to march into Cairo. But now Egypt's got Israel's West-Bank invading Suez army captured and is ready to march into Sinai again with all of her weapons of war replenished and missile defenses reinstalled and ready to go, etc.
30. SO EGYPT REALLY HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT FORWARD‚ WHILE ISRAEL HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT BACKWARD! And contrary to Sadat's excuse that the oil war isn't working, the oil war is hurting the world so bad that its pressure is prone to make the world a great deal more sympathetic with the Arab cause right now than it was even before the war started!
31. SO THAT TO A LOT OF THE WORLD IT WOULDN'T MUCH MATTER TO THEM HOW FAR THE ARABS MARCHED IN, AS LONG AS THEY PUT A STOP TO THE OIL WAR AND SAVED THE WORLD'S ECONOMIES, and even the American people would be very thankful for the relief no matter how much Israel suffered.
32. SO GADDAFI'S OIL WAR IS WORKING AND IT IS WORKING IN SADAT'S FAVOUR, even if he won't give Gaddafi credit for it! So that at this moment Sadat's almost in the best position to fight his war than at any time previously. And I think if the truth were known, Sadat would rather start it now before being forced to go the bargaining table and do any more fruitless talking!
33. MEANWHILE, IF HE DID‚ AS LONG AS EGYPT ONLY PUSHED IN AND RECAPTURED SINAI AND DIDN'T REALLY JEOPARDISE ISRAEL'S BASIC POSITION, I DON'T BELIEVE AMERICA WOULD SERIOUSLY OBJECT because Sinai is the one part of the Arab territory that even the Jews have said they would probably be willing to give up for guaranteed and secure boundaries and an ensured peace, and that Sinai is not worth much to anybody except as a buffer.
34. SO THAT AMERICA, THOUGH SHE WOULD PROBABLY SCREAM BEFORE THE PUBLIC, BEHIND THE SCENES SHE'D PROBABLY NOT PUT MUCH PRESSURE ON UNTIL EGYPT HAD RECAPTURED ABOUT HALF OF SINAI. Then she would probably start saying "OK, thus far and no further!—Now is a good time to quit and stop it while Israel still has control of the situation in the Golan, Jerusalem and half of Sinai." She'd probably really put the pressure on: "OK now, Boys! Let's stop it now and negotiate."
35. BUT IT'S A FUNNY THING ABOUT WARS: ONCE THEY'RE STARTED IT'S PRETTY HARD TO STOP THEM!—And Egypt by that time could be rolling so well across Sinai toward the cities of Israel that she'd be pretty hard to stop with anything short of missiles. She might even be so sure of herself by that time that she'd feel justified in using them herself.
36. BUT IT'S EVEN MORE LIKELY THAT ISRAEL IN HER HOURS OF DESPERATION MIGHT USE MISSILES as a last resort, in which case Egypt would surely use them. At this point the cities of Israel would be far more vulnerable than Egypt, in which case the U.S. Navy would most likely start shooting too, to keep its promised pledge to Israel never to let her down or see her wiped out and totally exterminated.
37. AND IN THIS CASE RUSSIA WOULD HAVE ITS EXCUSE FOR USING MISSILES AGAINST AMERICAN FORCES to defend its little brothers the Arabs, so that it could develop into an all out missile war between Russia and the U.S. that could nearly wipe them both out!
38. I STILL BELIEVE THAT IF IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN IT'S MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN NOW under all this duress‚ provocation, aggravation and irritation, as the Comet comes and all things‚ including the world economy‚ the American domestic situation, the European labour and monetary situations, the energy, food and pollution problems, are all being pushed to a crash-course state of world crisis.
39. THERE IS ONLY ONE SOLUTION: THE JUDGMENTS OF GOD UPON THE SUPER POWERS WHO ARE DEFILING, WASTING, POLLUTING AND DESTROYING THE EARTH! Perhaps God will let them destroy themselves as they deserve, so the meek Third World can inherit the Earth! If so, so be it! All glory be to God who has helped His Arab and Israeli instruments to bring it about! For there shall be a new heaven and a new Earth‚ for the former things shall pass away! Hallelujah!
40. ARE YOU READY FOR IT? Are you a member of Christ's Kingdom that shall never pass away? Are you one of God's Children through Jesus His Son, the Great Revolutionary that shall overthrow all these earthly powers and set up our Kingdom over all on Earth to establish a reign of righteousness that will bring lasting world peace and plenty to all?
41. IF NOT, WRITE NOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HOW TO BECOME A MEMBER of the Kingdom of God that shall never fail nor fall, but shall rule all the Earth in joy forever! God bless you with this His only salvation in Jesus! We love you! It's a Revolution!—For Jesus!
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