KEYWORDS: usa, trade, japan, bill, countries

Trigger, The

David Berg

DO 20408/85

1. THINGS ARE REALLY HOTTING UP! IT'S ALMOST AS THOUGH THE ANTICHRIST FORCES HAVE SENT OUT A MESSAGE TO EVERYBODY EVERYWHERE, "POUR IT ON!"—And everything everywhere is getting worse! Lebanon is getting worse, Chile is getting worse, South Africa's getting worse & the Iran-Iraq War is getting worse! Everywhere they want to attack is getting worse! It's like they have sent out word, "Pour it on! Stir it up!" I can see it on every hand, it's really hotting up!

2. AND NOW SOME DEADLINES ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR‚ SPECIFIC, TECHNICAL OR LEGAL DEADLINES WHICH I'VE BEEN WAITING TO SEE as indicators of when is it going to begin‚ what is going to precipitate it, what is going to be that little finger touch that's going to push it over the brink! There are several deadlines that have come up.

3. GATT, THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TRADE & TARIFFS, IS SUPPOSED TO MAKE UP THEIR MIND ON WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE GROWING TRADE WAR, in fact, the impending tremendous trade war that the U.S.A. is about to precipitate! GATT has a deadline that they've gotta meet: By August 31st they have to make their agreement or there is no agreement! They've got to come to some settlement or understanding.

4. BUT THE RICH COUNTRIES HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO GET TOGETHER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE POOR COUNTRIES. GATT is a general international tariff body that is supposed to try to keep these trade wars from developing‚ & come to trade agreements‚ but they're not coming to any agreement‚ & it doesn't look like they're going to get any. Therefore the U.S. is threatening tariffs, & probably will pass a tariff bill soon. There are over 300 different trade bills pending right now in Congress to raise the tariffs drastically, & the one that seems most likely to pass & has general agreement is a 25% tariff across-the-board on everybody‚ so it won't look like they're being partial, blah blah!

5. THE SMOOT-HAWLEY TARIFF BILL OF 1930 WAS THE VERY SAME KIND OF A BILL FOR THE VERY SAME REASON! There was a trade war going on between Germany & the United States, still going on even after WW1 when they conquered Germany, but getting very hot between Japan & the U.S. just before the Depression. Japan was booming, growing mighty & militarily, & in those days it turned out oodles of products, really just cheap imitations, but infuriating the U.S. because they were so cheap! Most of them in those days were cheap imitations‚ now they're cheap good quality stuff!—But it infuriated the United States because they were stealing their markets with all these cheap products!

6. SO THE REPUBLICAN CONGRESS UNDER HOOVER DECIDED TO PUT ON A TOUGH TARIFF BILL—Republicans again!—Same reason, same people, same time, same station! The poor nations were not in quite as tough circumstances as they are today in numerical figures, but I'd say they were in comparatively the same situation. They were heavily debt-laden & they were having very poor trade balances with the rich countries. About their only hope was to sell to the rich countries to raise money to pay their debts.

7. AND WHAT DID THE U.S. DO?—IT SLAPPED ON THE SMOOT-HAWLEY BILL WHICH HIKED ALL THE TARIFFS, as a protectionist measure against all these cheap products that were coming into the United States! The poor countries could no longer sell to the U.S. & they began to collapse. It infuriated Japan, they were fed up with the U.S., & they began to prepare for all-out hot war, which came a few years later. The United States, however, was to blame, the rich refusing to share with the poor, insisting on protecting its own rich at home & its rich industries & literally rich people compared to the rest of the World! They precipitated the whole thing, they brought the Depression upon themselves, followed then by the war!

8. SO THE SCENARIO IS IDENTICALLY THE SAME AGAIN! The poor countries are deep in debt & their only hope of getting out of debt is to try to sell to the rich countries, but the rich countries already have high tariffs that make it almost impossible for them to sell, Europe included, & the U.S. is just about to slap on another big heavy tariff bill, 25%! Can you imagine?

9. IN OTHER WORDS, BECAUSE THE U.S. CAN'T COMPETE WITH THESE GOOD & CHEAP PRODUCTS, & even raw materials they need, etc., they're about to slap on a tariff which won't just cost the poor countries 25% more, it'll stop their trade completely, bankrupt them, & they won't be able to pay those debts at all! They're all going to default! And it's going to happen!

10. IT WILL ALSO RAISE PRICES IN THE U.S. 25% FOR ALL THOSE PRODUCTS IN ONE FELL STROKE, ONE BLOW!—Whereas the U.S. is already having a tough time keeping a lot of its industries going. Things are going down, people are more & more jobless, just like it was before the big Depression. Everything's going exactly the same way. The Dollar is already declining & the farmers are already virtually in bankruptcy, especially the middle-income farmers. The poor ones have already gone down the drain long ago & only the bigger farmers were able to survive. Now even the bigger family farmers are going under & only the big corporate farmers with multi-million-dollar spreads of thousands of acres are able to survive. They are going to be hit almost the hardest of all by these hiked tariffs the U.S. is putting up!

11. THE U.S. IS CUTTING ITS OWN THROAT TO BEGGAR ITS NEIGHBOUR! You just can't understand how they could be so blind & so dumb & not see it! Even the [AC] newspapers are warning them! Even the [ACs] are warning them that they can't do it, they mustn't do it or it's going to bring on another depression! The [ACs] in the paper are coming out openly & saying, "For God's sake don't do it!" They're cutting their own throats because it's going to hike prices in the U.S. so the poor can't pay for these cheap products. It's going to kill several different industries‚ although it's being done supposedly to help a few industries which are being hurt by Japanese products & cheap raw materials & food from South America.—Also Japanese, Korean‚ Taiwanese, Singaporean & whatnot. They're finally going to get their vengeance on those cheap products!

12. BUT THE EFFECT IS GOING TO BE JUST LIKE IT WAS UNDER HOOVER WHEN THEY PASSED THE SAME KIND OF BILL UNDER THE SAME KIND OF CONDITIONS, IT PRECIPITATED THE WHOLE CRASH & the worst Depression this World's ever known, & they're doing the same thing over again! They're doing it knowingly in the face of all the facts & the precedents & previous examples & the previous Great Depression. But they're so furious that they can't sell their products in competition with Japan & the poor countries of the World that they want revenge! They're out for blood & they're going to get it by slitting their own throats, & it's going to bring on the Crash!

13. FIRST OF ALL THE GATT AGREEMENT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY FAIL, THEREFORE EUROPE & THE US WILL GO AHEAD WITH THEIR BIG TARIFFS, Europe probably hiking theirs also. This will precipitate an all-out trade war between the U.S. & Europe as well, all the little countries will go under financially, plus Japan will be infuriated & just take its trade elsewhere. The Japanese are smart & they work hard‚ they're good‚ efficient salesmen & they're helping the Eastern countries.

14. FRANKLY, I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE GOOD FOR THE EAST! Japan is already turning toward the Eastern countries. I think she can see the handwriting on the wall & she realises she's going to have to help those countries. Instead of buying so much food from the U.S.‚ Japan is going to turn to the East & sell to the poor.—If not, it should! It can leapfrog America & sell to Europe too, as well as even Africa, etc. Latin America hasn't begun to really develop its trade like it could, because it's been taking the easy way‚ it's easy to sell to the U.S.A. The good old U.S.A. will buy everything they can produce! But when that door closes, & it looks like it will close next month, then they'll have to sell elsewhere!

15. THE U.S. PLANS TO PASS THAT BILL IN SEPTEMBER & INCORPORATE MOST OF THE FEATURES OF ALL THE VARIOUS 300 BILLS PENDING TO HIKE TARIFFS! They say now they're moving it up to September‚ they're not going to wait for October! So at the latest it will pass sometime next month, which is only a week away, & I doubt if they'll be patient enough to wait till October, there are too many people furious!

16. A LOT OF PEOPLE WANT TO GET EVEN WITH JAPAN! Japan almost beat the U.S. in a war & it has now beat the U.S. in a trade war!—Absolutely, hands down, totally! And the U.S. is a poor loser, so they want revenge, they want blood, & they're going to get it by cutting their own throats!

17. SO HERE IS THE HANDWRITING ON THE WALL & I've just been looking for things in the wind that would be some little indication of when it's actually going to start, what's going to tip it off, what's going to shove it over, & it looks like that's it! It looks very much like the U.S. itself is going to do it by passing that trade bill! It would take a miracle to stop it, & I don't have the faith for the miracle because we know the collapse is coming & the U.S. deserves it!

18. OF COURSE IT WON'T NECESSARILY START IMMEDIATELY, ALTHOUGH IF IT SENDS THE STOCK MARKET INTO A TAILSPIN LIKE IT DID BEFORE, & THE DOLLAR, IT COULD CRASH REAL FAST! If this trade bill has such a bad effect on the U.S. economy that investors get scared & start pulling out, the U.S. is going to be left flat! It's already broke, it can't actually pay back all its debts.

19. ALL IT'S DOING RIGHT NOW IS PRINTING MONEY TO PAY'M‚ & THE INVESTORS KNOW IT, BUT WHAT ELSE CAN THEY DO? As long as everybody's happy & interest is being paid, even if they can't pay the principal, these greedy rich men, both East & West, are willing to keep the U.S. going long enough so they can at least get their interest. But it looks to me like this U.S. tariff bill is going to do it, very likely, & is the most concrete, definite, distinct material evidence of what's going to happen to precipitate it!

20. EVERYTHING IS ALREADY RIGHT ON THE BRINK IN A CRISIS SITUATION ANYHOW & this will send the poor South American & poor countries that had hoped to make it, over the edge! They're already having a hard enough time, but hope to make it as long as they continue to sell to the U.S. Brasil has even been having a fairly good trade surplus with the U.S., because of all their raw materials & other things that they sell. Brasil & Spain particularly have been sending millions of Dollars worth of cheap shoes to the U.S. But that tariff will stop those sales & put Brasil in bankruptcy, & possibly Spain which is also really a poor country. They've been having stiff economic troubles ever since Franco died. It'll just start the ball rolling, that's all.

21. IF THE U.S. SIGNS THAT BILL THEY WILL LITERALLY BE SIGNING THEIR OWN DEATH WARRANT! They say they've already got a hands-down 2/3 majority in both houses that will easily pass the bill over the President's veto. That's how confident they are they're going to pass it, they've already got it! And yet they just either can't see it or don't care, they're so hot for revenge!

22. THEY'RE IN THE SAME SPIRIT IN THIS TRADE WAR AS A NATION GETS INTO BEFORE A HOT WAR! They don't give a damn about the cost, they don't give a damn about the bloodshed or the murder or the horrors & all the rest! They're so mad they just want to get even, they just want to get revenge!—And that's the spirit the U.S. is in right now. It doesn't give a damn about the cost, it doesn't care whether it brings on a Depression! They're so angry with Japan & Europe, etc., they're just going to do it anyway! They claim their main targets are Japan, South Korea—their own little colony‚ ha!—Taiwan‚ Brasil & Europe too. But Europe‚ the EEC, is well–organised & they can fight back! The U.S. is going to lose friends & antagonise people!

23. AND I'M TELLING YOU THIS BECAUSE IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BEGIN IN SEPTEMBER‚ AT LEAST THE TRIGGERS THAT ARE GOING TO FIRE THE GUN! It may take a few months for it to come into full boom or bloom‚ but it'll be, & October could be it! It looks like it will begin in September, the specific events & causes that are going to trigger it.—Besides all the other things that have amassed for months & years already which could easily bring collapse within a month‚ especially if enough people get scared!

24. THEY'RE HAVING A RUN ON ANOTHER BANK IN THE U.S. I think they say there have been more bank failures in the past four years than there were in the previous 20 years! So it's happening & thank God we're getting prepared for it! Maybe by the end of the year we won't have to be paying any budgets or gifts to anybody, we won't have it!—Maybe! I don't know. We hope we'll still have it. We hope we'll still be able to keep going & I know we're going to be able to keep something going, because we wouldn't be here & the Lord wouldn't just let us down! But it may not be near what we're doing now.

25. THAT'S WHY I'M EAGER TO GET OUT AS MUCH OF EVERYTHING AS I CAN RIGHT NOW, even of these boiled-down-to-our-minimum periodicals, things we get out every week or month. But when things start getting tough we may have to start cutting them down too. But at least we've been preparing now for two years, knowing it's coming, & I think we're better prepared now than we were last year & I think we'll be better prepared by the end of this year than we are now. PTL! And I expect the Lord to help us keep something going, whatever happens!

26. BUT LET'S KEEP EVERYTHING GOING AS LONG AS WE CAN, & LET'S KEEP THE NEEDED UNITS & PEOPLE GOING who are really necessary & very productive & fruitful! Let's keep them going as long as we can & not cut'm all off entirely until we just absolutely cannot afford to continue. We've warned them enough times & if some day the day comes that they don't get their cheque, then they'll know that's it‚ it's happened & we just don't have enough to go around!

27. BUT I EXPECT THE LORD TO TAKE CARE OF US WHERE WE CAN KEEP SOMETHING GOING, LORD WILLING! As I've said, the three pubs that I think are absolutely essential would be the GN & the children's lit, which is Life with Grandpa & Heaven's Girl. I'd like to keep them all going if we could, but next to that I'd like to keep the WND & FSM going. But if it comes to where we have to start trimming them one by one, we'll trim'm, in order to keep something going, Lord willing.

28. WELL, IT'S HAPPENING & IT LOOKS LIKE THE SIGNS ARE ALREADY ON THE WALL OF WHAT'S GOING TO PRECIPITATE IT, & THAT U.S. TARIFF BILL LOOKS LIKE THE TRIGGER, the leverage that's going to do it, just like it did it last time! Exactly the same conditions prevail, exactly the same attitude of the U.S. Congress, & exactly the same kind of bill was passed under Hoover!—And immediately the little nations collapsed, & Europe was collapsing financially!

29. YOU CAN'T JUST TELL YOUR CUSTOMERS TO GO TO HELL LIKE THE U.S. IS GOING TO DO, BECAUSE THOSE PEOPLE ALSO BUY STUFF FROM THE UNITED STATES! There may be a trade imbalance, but at least they buy something. Japan buys billions of Dollars worth of goods & food from the United States, but because the trade balance is not in its favour & it doesn't please it, the U.S. is risking Japan chopping off all that trade completely, as well as all the trade from South America & Europe! Who the Hell is she going to trade with? Where is the U.S. going to sell their high-priced stuff if they make it so God-damned high-priced that nobody can buy it?—Not even themselves! It's insanity, absolute insanity, just like it was before the first Great Depression, & it looks like that's what they're going to trigger it with again, the same thing over again!

30. HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF & THE ONLY THING WE LEARN FROM HISTORY IS THAT WE NEVER LEARN FROM HISTORY, OR AT LEAST THE WORLD DOESN'T. But thank God, I think we have & we have seen the handwriting on the wall & signs of the times & the clouds in the sky & we're getting ready for it!

31. SO I THOUGHT I'D WARN YOU THAT IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S COMING, I'VE JUST BEEN WAITING TO SEE WHAT WAS GOING TO PUSH IT, what was the pin going to be that pops the balloon! It looks like the U.S. itself is going to wield the pin & pop its own balloon, just like it always has before, the same way! They did the same thing before World War 1.

32. THEY NEVER LEARN THAT WHAT HURTS OTHERS IS GOING TO HURT THEM! Do unto others & they'll do unto you, that's what happens! They want to keep their wealth & their riches & their high prices & high wages & all that stuff, & they don't want to share & help the poor. They don't want to help the poor by buying their cheap products & letting some of their own too-high–priced, too-inefficient‚ ineffective & sloppy & uncompetitive industries die, because they've got votes, high-pressure lobbies!

33. THERE ARE SEVERAL INDUSTRIES THEY OUGHT TO PHASE OUT COMPLETELY & GET SMART LIKE JAPAN DID. When Japan found industries weren't profitable & were costing them more money than they were making‚ they just phased them out & got rid of them! The U.S. is trying to preserve its ancient relics & ancient traditions & its ancient industries. Their steel industry is practically an antique! It's virtually defunct now! But they won't die the death‚ they refuse! They're howling for high tariffs against European & Japanese steel & blah blah blah! They just refuse to give up, they refuse to share! That's what it all amounts to.

34. THEY'RE REFUSING TO SHARE WITH THE POOR, & IF THERE'S ANY LESSON THAT WE OUGHT TO LEARN & WHAT GOD'S WORD SAYS, IT IS‚ "HE THAT WITHHOLDETH, IT TENDETH TO POVERTY!" (Pro.11:24) The U.S. is now going to withhold what little help it has been giving the poor & the rest of the World, & they're going to tend to the biggest poverty they have ever known & bring a lot of the World down with them just like they did before! But we've learned that "He that scattereth abroad, it increaseth!"—So let's go, let's scatter! Amen? PTL!—Get out those Posters!

35. THANK YOU JESUS FOR THY WISDOM & THY WORD, LORD! We don't know anything‚ really, we haven't anything. All we know is what You've said & You've told us & what You've shown us & we just follow Thee, & it's a winning combination, it's always successful! If we give & share & distribute‚ then You increase us, & the more we give, the more You give! We can never outgive You, Lord!

36. SO HELP US NOW AS WE GIVE AGAIN & GIVE MORE MONEY AWAY TO HELP MORE PEOPLE, TO HELP MORE SOULS‚ so that we can all do as much as we possibly can in the little time that we have left!—Including the folks that we're going to help, to help others, in Jesus' name! Bless & keep us & continue to make us a blessing right to the End, Lord! Give us wisdom in all these details & figures & plans to do what You know is best, in Jesus' name. TYL! Have Thy way! Amen! PTL! GBY!—Have you done your best?