—Who Started the War & What For? DFO 12065/82
1. AS FOR THE MILITARY STRATEGY‚ BRITAIN IS OF COURSE, OPERATING AT A GREAT DISADVANTAGE, thousands of miles from home, something like 8,000 miles from home. Therefore they have a supply problem, a logistic problem‚ but they're commandeering all the main ships & big ships, even the Queen Elizabeth to transport troops & supplies. They apparently plan on having a full-scale war & they're not planning to lose it, & so they're ferrying in thousands of paratroopers for the eventual final assault to take the islands. In the meantime they're having to fight off the superior Argentine air force who are located conveniently nearby, convenient for the Argentines, whereas the British have to ferry theirs in from thousands of miles away.
2. BUT THE BRITISH HAVE A VERY SUPERIOR NAVAL FORCE, & I WOULD SAY PROBABLY A VERY SUPERIOR EXPERTISE AS FAR AS TECHNOLOGY & MODERN EQUIPMENT IS CONCERNED AS WELL. I was amazed to see how on these modern warships they have now‚ they no longer have gun crews manning gun turrets right on the deck of the ship. Everything's operated from a control centre deep down in the bowels of the ship & the gun turrets are all automated, nobody there but the machinery, & they're all fired by electronic homing devices & nobody's on deck! Everybody's safely down below, so it's amazing what they're doing. This is the first real test of equipment‚ particularly electronic naval equipment, in any sizeable conflict since WW II, & they didn't have any to speak of then.
3. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BRITISH TACTIC IS TO ISOLATE THE ISLANDS FROM THE ARGENTINE MAINLAND, which they're already doing since they have a superior naval force & are preventing Argentina from resupplying or reinforcing the islands with their own troops or supplies. They've already pretty well cut off the islands & destroyed the airstrips so the Argentine planes can't land there. Which now means that in order to either ferry in their own paratroopers or supplies they'd have to drop them from the air, & they'd have to fly a long roundtrip of half-a-thousand miles in order to do it, & to attack British warships they have to do the same, & they'd have to be fairly good-sized ships & not just mere little fighter planes. (The H.M.S. Sheffield was sunk by a special missile plane.)
4. FIGHTER PLANES CAN'T USUALLY FLY THAT FAR. Fighter planes are limited to just a very few hundred miles & can normally not be operated very far from base, & besides fighter planes are not equipped to do very much damage. They're mostly equipped just to fight other fighter planes that are guarding things like ships or the mainland, etc.‚ & dogfights. Heavy bombers that could do any damage to the British Navy are about the only thing that could fly that far with a heavy bomb load & fly back again, & of course they don't have as many of those as they have fighters. Their total air force only amounts to about 250 planes & most of them are fighters & not bombers.
5. SO IF THE BRITISH NAVY CAN STAY AFLOAT LONG ENOUGH TO KNOCK ENOUGH OF THEIR PLANES OUT OF THE AIR & GET ENOUGH OF THEIR OWN DOWN THERE, why, they have a chance of winning the war in short order, because the Argentine Navy doesn't amount to many & they've already sunk several of them & they are totally outgunned & out–manned & out-shipped as far as the navy is concerned, except for the new French missiles!
6. WHAT THE BRITISH ARE TRYING TO DO IS GET DOWN THERE & ISOLATE THE ISLANDS & prevent the Argentines from having any further communication or transportation to the islands to resupply them or reinforce them, & to keep the Argentine planes from continuing to help their troops on the islands. Meanwhile the British Navy then is going to have to fight off superior air force‚ which is a disadvantage & also so far from home. But it looks like they're planning to send in enough ships & enough planes & enough troops that it will totally overwhelm the Argentines. (Churchill says they should attack Argentina!)
7. IF THE ARGENTINES HAD ANY CHANCE AT ALL OF HAVING ANY VICTORIES AT ALL, RIGHT NOW IS WHEN THEY'VE GOT TO HAVE THEM while they still have their superior air force & enough planes to do it‚ & while the British are still handicapped with fewer planes & fewer men. But the British have a far superior navy, much bigger & more powerful, & they've got more men available, trained paratroopers, & they've got more planes available at home.
8. THE BRITISH NEED TIME RIGHT NOW, they need time to get forces there because it's so far, & they're going to use nearby bases. This is one of the reasons they captured South Georgia Island first‚ so they could use it as a base, & they're using Ascension right now‚ which is four thousand miles away. So the British are operating at a disadvantage because they're so far from their supply base & their major forces.
9. THE ARGENTINES HAVE THE ADVANTAGE AT THE MOMENT & IF THEY'RE GOING TO WIN ANY KIND OF VICTORY OR ANYTHING THEY'VE GOT TO DO IT NOW, QUICK! Or the British are going to have enough forces, enough planes‚ enough guns, enough ships & enough men down there within the next few weeks to completely overwhelm them. I mean, they could march in & take over Argentina by the time they get everybody down there, which they may have to do. I mean after all, they are eventually going to have to bomb the Argentine mainland & its airstrips to defeat the Argentine air force, & this is one of their primary objectives right now, unless there's a political compromise.
10. BECAUSE THEY'RE OUT-PLANED RIGHT NOW, THEIR ONLY CHANCE OF KEEPING THE ARGENTINES FROM GETTING SOME AIR VICTORIES IS TO SNEAK ATTACK THE ARGENTINE AIR BASES ON THE MAINLAND to keep their planes from taking off‚ & destroy their planes on the ground since they've got an air superiority, & that's going to be pretty tough to do but they're going to try to do it. This is just counting on Britain & Argentina alone, just them fighting it out between themselves with no outside help.
11. NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE U.S. IS COMING OUT FLATFOOTED NOW & SIDING WITH THE BRITISH & are going to help them, although dear Reagan is still talking out of both corners of his mouth, "We're still trying to make peace, blah, blah, blah." Haig's been pretty definite & he has come out definitely on the side of the British & that they're going to have to stand by their ally. Which means the U.S. with huge capability can very easily help the British keep supplied. The U.S. has said their help plans to be material, not military. In other words‚ not men or actual forces but military supplies. They can supply the ammunition, planes & all kinds of things that the British already know how to operate.
12. BUT OF COURSE, THE UNKNOWN QUANTITY RIGHT NOW IS HOW MUCH RUSSIA WOULD CARE TO GET INVOLVED, & she's obviously trying to curry the favour of Argentina & has already promised Argentina help, & as far as most everybody knows is already helping Argentina secretly with intelligence & reconnaissance reports by satellite & all that sort of thing. But of course she wouldn't hesitate to continue to help Argentina secretly. She already had some subs in the area & this is what could turn the tide of battle against the superior British naval force, is if the Russian subs should decide to start sinking British ships. The Russian subs are big ones, nuclear-powered subs‚ & can stay under water for indefinite periods of time & have very high-power attack torpedoes!
13. AND IF THE RUSSIAN SUBS START HELPING THE ARGENTINES, WELL, THAT COULD TURN THE TIDE OF THE NAVAL BATTLE, because of course the Russians are a whole lot smarter than most of the rest of the World & they have been outsmarting even the United States. So if Russia decides to step in & start helping the Argentines she'll probably try to do it secretly to claim she's not, because she doesn't want the U.S. to step in.
14. APPARENTLY SHE DOESN'T WANT TO REVEAL OVERT MILITARY HELP FROM RUSSIA. Because if it's revealed that Russia's really helping the Argentines, then the U.S. would have sufficient justification for stepping in more forcefully on Britain's side, if it's brought out that Russia is actually helping Argentina & it's openly exposed as such, which I'm sure they'll try not to be, as far as actual military action. They're openly sympathising with Argentina & openly saying they're going to help Argentina with supplies & are already shipping supplies in &, in fact, that plane load of electronic equipment from Cuba‚ etc.
15. BUT I'M SURE RUSSIA'S GOING TO TRY TO AVOID OPEN WARFARE WITH THE BRITISH‚ because then the U.S. would have a right to step in, & if it gets to that, where both sides are openly helping the other side, then it could very easily escalate to not just Russia helping the Argentines & the U.S. helping the British, & the U.S. & Russia helping Britain & Argentina to attack each other. But it could escalate to the point where if one or the other side thinks they're losing, they'd be tempted to attack the other—the Superpowers actually attack each other.
16. BECAUSE IT BECOMES THEN A WAR BETWEEN THE SUPERPOWERS, & THIS IS, OF COURSE, HOW EVERY WAR BEGINS. They never intended or planned for it to be a World War to begin with, it just gradually escalated to a World War. So this could be it, this could be the beginning. (Maria: But they realise that, everybody realises...) Everybody knows that of course, unless they're awful blind, deaf, dumb & blind. That's what they're all afraid of & even Russia & the U.S. are probably afraid of that, I think.
17. BUT RUSSIA, HER GREAT ADVANTAGE & HER GREAT TACTIC & OBVIOUS STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE IS ALMOST ALWAYS PROPAGANDA. What Russia's trying to do right now is most of all get World sympathy on the side of Argentina, & to get the sympathy of all the Third World & the little countries & the poor countries & particularly Latin America, & she's already virtually won that battle. She's obviously already persuaded the Latins to side with Argentina. She's siding with Argentina & nearly all the other Latin American countries are siding with Argentina.
18. SO THERE YOU HAVE THE WEST ALREADY DIVIDED, & YOU MIGHT AS WELL SAY THAT RUSSIA HAS THEREFORE ALREADY VIRTUALLY GOT SOUTH AMERICA, ALL LATIN AMERICA, ON HER SIDE because she has proclaimed herself as the succourer & saviour of the Latin Americans now. In an actual war she'd come out on the side of the Latin Americans & they all know it‚ & so they voted against the West & for Argentina, & every vote they voted for Argentina in that OAS meeting the other morning was a vote for Russia, because Russia is already sympathising & siding with Argentina. That's what it amounts to.
19. IT SHOWS THAT WHEN THEIR OWN MATERIAL GAIN & SELFISH PERSONAL INTERESTS ARE CONCERNED IT DOESN'T MAKE A DAMN WHETHER THEY'RE FASCISTS, COMMUNISTS, DICTATORSHIPS OR DEMOCRACIES, they will vote whatever they think's in their favour‚ & right now most of those Latin American countries have decided Argentina is in their favour, & to have Russia siding with them is very much in their favour. Because this then‚ having Russia in the background as a threat, is a threat against the intervention of the U.S. on the side of Britain to help Britain in the war, & this is what they are each trying to play off against each other.
20. IT WAS A HUGE POLITICAL & DIPLOMATIC VICTORY FOR BRITAIN TO GAIN THE HELP OF THE U.S. & have it side with her. At the same time it was already before that a huge diplomatic victory for Argentina to solicit the help of Russia. So they have both gained major diplomatic victories in getting the Superpowers on their sides, one Superpower on each side, & the World is dividing up in just the way that we predicted it would ten years ago:
21. —THAT RUSSIA WOULD GRADUALLY ENCIRCLE & ISOLATE THE U.S. & THE WEST, & THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT IS HAPPENING. Now with Russia beginning to get Latin America into its camp & siding with Latin America in this war, it's completing the circle by siding with South America & Latin America & the Argentines against the Western Powers, & if they get mad enough, countries will do almost anything: They'll accept the help of the Devil if they think it's going to help them win! They've done it before in both World Wars & all through history.
22. WHEN COUNTRIES GET DESPERATE & SEE THAT THEY'RE OUTGUNNED‚ OUT-MANNED & OUTMANOEUVRED & EVERYTHING ELSE, THEY'LL CALL IN THEIR WORST ENEMIES TO HELP THEM, which is exactly what Argentina's doing. Although Russia was not Argentina's worst enemy even before the war. Argentina's had more friendly contacts & much more trade with Russia than it has with the U.S., & Argentina has always been considered an enemy by the U.S. & the U.S. an enemy by Argentina, & they've always been vying for power & domination of Latin America. As I've said before, Argentina is the bellwether, the stubborn, bullheaded ram of South America which has held out in its defiance of the U.S. domination of Latin America, & rightly so.
23. WELL, NOW IT'S COMING TO A SHOWDOWN‚ & SO FAR ARGENTINA HAS BEEN WINNING THE POLITICAL VICTORIES. The U.S. & the Western Powers won in the UN when the UN voted a resolution condemning Argentina & demanding that Argentina pull out. But with the Latin American nations, Argentina won. The Western Powers won in the UN, & Argentina won in the OAS, the Organisation of American States. That's an organisation of the whole Western Hemisphere of North & South America, sort of the little UN of the Americas. It's the Organisation of American States, & there Argentina has won by an overwhelming, almost unanimous vote in their favour. So this has split the West wide-open & placed South America squarely on the side not only of Argentina but Russia, by Russia sympathising with Argentina. Argentina‚ of course, has been carrying on much more trade with Russia, selling her millions & millions of tons of grain. When the U.S. imposed a grain embargo on Russia for its invasion of Afghanistan, Argentina's trade with Russia boomed & she supplied the lack of what was needed.
24. ANYHOW, THIS WAR—SAD TO SAY IN SOME WAYS BUT GLAD TO SAY IN OTHER WAYS, BECAUSE IT'S MAKING EVERYTHING COME TO A HEAD & IT'S REVEALING WHAT'S HAPPENING—IS DIVIDING THE WORLD JUST THE WAY RUSSIA WANTS IT TO BE DIVIDED WITH SOUTH AMERICA ON HER SIDE! It has not only gotten Russia on South America's side but it has gotten South America on Russia's side, because Russia is obviously now helping Argentina & therefore South Americans consider that Russia is helping South America defy the U.S. & the old so-called colonial powers of the West—U.S., Britain‚ etc. So it's really very significant & as far as the play-by–play military moves, why these are such battles, strategic battles that are a part of the overall war.
25. BUT AS I SEE IT RIGHT AT THE MOMENT, IF THE ARGENTINES ARE GOING TO GET ANY VICTORY AT ALL, they have either got to win a victory immediately, an air superiority victory of some kind which they have to have, or they don't have a chance. If the British don't manage to win right now they're bound to win later, unless Russia steps in with all fours & really comes all-out to help Argentina. In which case it is bound to result in a final confrontation between the U.S. & Russia. Because if Russia does that, the U.S. will come in full-force on the side of Britain & the Western Powers & it'll escalate to a World War & a final confrontation between the Superpowers, which is bound to escalate to an atomic war.
26. SO THIS COULD BE IT! IT'S CERTAINLY THE CLOSEST THING TO IT THAT WE'VE HAD FOR A LONG TIME, & of course in the meantime all of the places which have been hot spots for a long time, such as Israel & the Gulf, Southeast Asia & the Caribbean, are heating up. They always take advantage of the fact that the Big Powers are busy‚ & busy somewhere else. They always take advantage of their opportunities to start some nice little wars of their own to grab what they've been wanting to grab for a long time, while the other big Superpowers are too busy to stop'm.
27. SO‚ IN THESE EARLY STAGES THE ONLY CHANCE ARGENTINA HAS TO WIN IS NOW, EXCEPT FOR THE HELP OF RUSSIA. If Russia steps in with its submarines that are down there already & starts torpedoing British ships, then that'll be pretty rough on the British, with the present superior Argentine air power. But if so, this means it's all-out war between the British & the Argentines & no more just a few little sinkings, a few little downings of planes & a small loss of life. If the Argentines do too much damage with their present air force right now, the British will never allow'm to get away with it without revenge & vengeance. And if Russia steps in with its clandestine & secret subs & starts torpedoing the British Navy, the British Navy is bound to more or less suspect that sooner or later, because they know the Argentines don't have that many subs & aren't that able. So it's very unlikely that the Argentines alone could win many naval battles.
28. SO IF THE BRITONS START LOSING TOO MANY SHIPS BY SUBMARINES, OR EVEN IF THE ARGENTINES CLAIM THEY'RE SINKING THEM BY PLANE, I WOULD BEGIN TO DOUBT IT, I would begin to suspect that Russia's helping undercover. (Maria: Well, the British would know that.) Well, it's not easy to find out, you know, when there're submarines lurking around beneath the waves, whose submarines are shooting & whose submarines are doing it when the Argentines also have submarines. But of course the Argentines have very few, & probably, from what's been reported, the Russian's have about as many submarines there as the Argentines have & bigger, great big nuclear subs that can stay under water for months, which also means they're higher-powered & with big torpedoes too‚ enough to sink big ships.
29. I WAS JUST THINKING WHEN THEY SAID THEY WERE CALLING IN THE QUEEN ELIZABETH, there's nothing the Argentines would love to do like sink the Queen Elizabeth with 3,000 British troops! That would be a major victory & it would be the easiest thing in the World for a Russian sub to do it for'm; & I'll tell you, if anything like that happens, Britain will be in it up to here from now on &, just like they did in the last two World Wars, they'll never give up until they either win or die! In that case the U.S. is bound to step in all-out & help them, & by that time, of course, Russia will come all-out & help Argentina, if not all Latin America, & it'll be a full-scale war‚ & that's just what it looks like already: The possible beginning of WW3!
30. IT WOULD TAKE A MIRACLE OF GOD TO STOP IT NOW THAT THEY HAVE SUNK SO MANY SHIPS, DOWNED SO MANY PLANES & KILLED SO MANY MEN. They're both out for blood & they're getting it—their own—but they're going to want lotsa blood now & vengeance & revenge, & they're going to keep on trying till they get it if they can, & if they get much British blood then the British are going to be in it full-fledged all the way & they'll never stop till they have conquered not just the islands but Argentina, & I don't think Russia will ever allow that because it would be a victory for the U.S. & Britain & the West. So this could be it, this could be The War! So I think we ought to wind up our work in Europe as fast as we can on those last projects & productions & get the last Units out of there as fast as we can.
31. BECAUSE REGARDLESS OF HOW FAR AWAY THE WAR IS BEGINNING, IT WILL START RIGHT AWAY TIGHTENING UP THINGS ON THE SEA-LANES & THE AIR LANES. Britain has to come the full length of the Atlantic‚ & their British ships & their war planes flying South are going to suspect all aircraft crossing the Atlantic & their sea lanes of being possibly sympathetic with the other side & conducting reconnaissance & surveillance of how many British ships, how many planes are flying & where &, etc. So it'll begin to tighten up both the sea lanes & the air lanes & that means transportation & communication, because if they all get into it, which it looks like they're going to, why we better get whoever we're going to get out of there as soon as we can & that's now! The quicker the better! Well, anyhow that's how I see it.
32. IF ARGENTINA BY HERSELF IS GOING TO WIN ANY KIND OF VICTORY IT'S GOT TO BE NOW, BECAUSE THE BRITISH ARE OBVIOUSLY IN THIS UP TO THE HILT & the Iron Lady is planning to see it through! They've got a tough Churchillian Prime Minister now who is‚ as they used to call him, the War Minister. Some people called him the Warmonger, & he was determined to fight. Well, Britain started a war with Hitler Germany when there looked like there was just as little chance of winning; in fact‚ a lot less chance of winning‚ except that she was hoping the U.S. would come in on her side. Well, the U.S. almost didn't; for a couple of years it stayed out of it & Britain almost lost, & it was only when the U.S. saw that Britain was going to lose that she stepped in & came all-out in the open helping Britain militarily, to save the Jews from Hitler.
33. I THINK THAT THE ONLY WAY THE U.S. WOULD EVER ENTER THE WAR IS IF SHE ACTUALLY SAW BRITAIN WAS GOING TO LOSE & IT WOULD BE A MAJOR VICTORY FOR RUSSIA & a victory of Latin America over the U.S. It would mean a total loss of Latin America for the U.S. & its domination of the South, & would totally complete the encirclement & isolation of the U.S. & the West under Russian domination, & you know the U.S. is never going to stand for that. It'll come out into open warfare with Russia before it will allow that. When it sees that that's happening, that Russia's winning, it'll start fighting Russia. But Russia obviously, when it sees that that's going to happen, is going to hit first & that's that—she'll hit the red button & it'll all be over!
34. SO IF WE'RE GOING TO GET THE REST OF OUR FOLKS OUT OF EUROPE WE BETTER GET'M OUT QUICK! Because things are going to get a lot tighter all the way around. They will become tighter right away in every country‚ they'll start watching their security & their aliens just like they've already declared in France & different places. They start tightening up on transportation—if the conflagration spreads with too many sympathisers in Latin America, airlines are going to be hesitant about flying into the so–called belligerent states or the belligerent parties. They're going to hesitate to fly into every state that openly, overtly & actively helps Argentina & it will be considered a belligerent state, not a neutral but a war state. And the airlines will hesitate to fly into warring nations & they'll hesitate to cross war areas & hesitate to cross the sea lanes & air lanes of warring nations.
35. THE WHOLE ATLANTIC NOW IS ACTUALLY A WAR AREA BECAUSE BRITAIN HAS TO FERRY ALL OF ITS TROOPS & PLANES & SHIPS & GUNS & BOATS & AMMUNITION & EVERYTHING THE FULL LENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC. So therefore it's got to protect the full-length of the Atlantic‚ all the sea lanes & air lanes for the full length of the Atlantic, & when they start doing that & they start having armadas of ships sailing south & huge convoys of ships sailing south, lots of warships go with them & lots of planes go with them to prevent their being attacked by enemies, & then it gets kind of risky to sail or fly across those lanes because you might be mistaken for an enemy. So it really cuts down on the transportation, I'll tell you!
36. WHEN WAR BROKE OUT BETWEEN BRITAIN & GERMANY, it was in Europe on the Continent at that time, & Britain itself was supposedly free from war right then, except it had declared war on Germany. Well, right away the war tightened up any kind of transportation & communication to Britain because it was one of the warring powers, & they have to watch out about spies, information leaks, & so they tighten up communications immediately too.
37. ONLY ESSENTIAL TELEPHONE CALLS OR MONITORED CALLS ARE PERMITTED & all kinds of security, they tighten up right away on only essential transportation for essential people. The only advantage that any of our folks in Europe would have is being Americans they would probably repatriate them to the USA, where they don't want to go. So if you're going to get to somewhere else at all you'd better get there soon! Because this could be the War or the beginning of it!
38. SO INSTEAD OF THE WAR ACTUALLY BEGINNING IN THE MIDEAST, although it's already begun there & been fighting there for a long time—Iran & Iraq & Israel & the Arabs & all the rest—this could be the final beginning. But we know from the Bible that it's going to end in Israel, that's for sure, & at Armageddon eventually.
39. BUT IF ANYONE WANTS TO GET ANYWHERE THEY BETTER GET THERE SOON because emigration's going to tighten up‚ transportation, communication, everything is going to tighten up because of the war. It just does! The whole World just sort of tightens up—a war is sort of like a cancer that tenses the whole body & puts the whole body into pain & fighting in one way or another & every area is affected. One cancer on the body affects the whole body & makes the whole body go tense, & that's exactly what happens when the war begins like this—it makes the whole World sick!
40. THE WHOLE WORLD IS GOING TO GO TENSE NOW & CHOOSE UP SIDES & START FIGHTING & transportation is going to be difficult, communication is going to be difficult & emigration is going to be tight. So whatever we're going to do, we better do it quick, as fast as we can! So anyhow, that's my opinion of what's happening & what's about to happen & what seems most likely.
41. MY SUMMATION WOULD BE THAT IF ARGENTINA IS GOING TO WIN ANY KIND OF VICTORY NOW SHE HAS TO DO IT BY AIR & SHE'S GOT TO DO IT QUICK before British superior forces get there. Or if she tries & loses the air battle, her only chance of winning then is with Red help‚ Russian help, which Russia's already pledged, & the U.S. has already come out & pledged its help to Britain, & there you are—war between the Superpowers! In other words, unless Argentina wins now‚ she has no chance of winning without Russian help & that means World War, & considering how many forces Britain's getting in there right now it's going to be difficult.
42. THEY SAY A LOT OF THESE SHIPS ARE PRETTY IMPERVIOUS TO ATTACK BECAUSE THEY'VE GOT SUCH GOOD DEFENSIVE WEAPONS THEMSELVES. They've got all kinds of missiles & everything to defend themselves from planes, so that the Argentines are going to have a hard time sinking the British Navy, even with their 250 planes. The British Navy, those big battleships & all are pretty hard to sink, especially with their new electronic weapons & all that they've got which they know how to operate, & I'm not too sure the Argentines have got that kind of air power that they can defeat them. (But they did!)
43. OBVIOUSLY BRITAIN, THOUGH ALREADY AT A DISADVANTAGE & WITH AS FEW SHIPS & PLANES & MEN THAT IT HAS GOT DOWN THERE, IS ALREADY WINNING & already proving itself superior in firefights with the Argentines. The British have lost fewer planes, ships & men. The Argentines have lost several planes & some ships & God knows how many men already. So obviously the British are already winning unless the Argentines can come up with better & superior forces & tactics than they are using right now. (And they did!)
44. AT THIS MOMENT THE BRITISH ARE WINNING, & THE BRITISH CAN WIN UNLESS THE ARGENTINES ARE HELPED BY THE RUSSIANS. But the Russians could help them by their subs & by their supplies & their satellite surveillance, etc.—information, intelligence. But the U.S. has got just the same kind of superior help to give the British, so the showdown is going to come. The only chance the Argentines really have of winning this war on their own is right now & I don't see that it's going that way. Therefore, if she can't win it now, she can't win it alone.—Right? And Russia will have to step in & help her by the time the British start winning. Savvy? And that means of course, the U.S. will step in actively & help Britain, & then you've got World War III!
45. SO IF OUR FINAL WORLD SERVICE UNITS ARE GOING TO GET OUT OF EUROPE THEY BETTER DO IT QUICK, & IF OUR FOLKS ARE GOING TO GET OUT OF EUROPE & THE U.S. THEY BETTER DO IT PRETTY SOON while the door's still open & the tunnel's still open & they can still go, while communication & transportation is still open. So I wouldn't be surprised that's why the Lord's hurrying us up. PTL! He wants us all to hurry to the mission fields while there's still time!
46. SO THE FALK WAR & THE MILITARY SITUATION—IS IT WORLD WAR III? We've been looking for confirmation of our suspicion that the Soviet Union encouraged Argentina to make this attack on the Falklands with its promised support: Two days before the Argentineans attacked the Falklands the Soviet Union obviously had advance knowledge of the impending attack & shot up two spy satellites over the Falklands! On the day of the Argentine attack on the Falklands the Soviet Union put up another spy satellite over that area, & a few days afterward it put up two more‚ & then as the British were steaming south a couple weeks later they put up some more spy satellites over the South Atlantic, & have so far loaded that area with no less than eight new spy satellites over the Falklands & the South Atlantic since just before the beginning of the war & the first Argentine attack! Now that sounds pretty suspicious to me!
47. I THINK PROBABLY THE ARGENTINES KNEW THEY HAD SOVIET BACKING BEFORE THEY MADE THE ATTACK OR THEY WOULDN'T HAVE DARED DO IT! The Soviets put up two spy satellites right over the Falklands two days before the attack, one on the day of the attack & two a few days later, & then of course they have been loading the South Atlantic with spy satellites ever since, monitoring British ship movements, etc. The Argentines themselves do not have such sophisticated equipment, but have been using their own commercial airlines that operate over the South Atlantic to do photographic reconnaissance of British ship movements, etc. (Maria: And it seems so crazy that Argentina'd do it like that without support.) Yes.—Russian support!
48. THEY APPARENTLY ALREADY HAD PROMISE OF SOVIET SUPPORT BEFORE THEY EVEN ATTACKED THE FALKLANDS, & THE SOVIETS PROBABLY EGGED THEM ON, even encouraged them to attack the Falklands & they'd back them, knowing what it would do. Knowing what would happen, that it would be their golden opportunity to split South America & Latin America off from the U.S. & to get Latin America on its side. The Soviet Union, I'm convinced, undoubtedly encouraged the attack & probably even helped them plan it & everything, & have been keeping things going, monitoring it—& probably even directing the strategy!
49. THEY ALREADY HAD THEIR BIG SUBS IN THE AREA, that was known‚ that the Soviet Union already had some big nuclear subs in the area. Why?—They knew the attack was going to happen because they were fomenting it & no doubt helping the Argentines plan it & were behind the whole thing in the beginning! That was one of the first suspicions that came to me, but I thought, "Well, they're that smart, but I wonder would they have really dared to put the Argentines up to it?" But they certainly would've & apparently they did, & it's probably their whole idea! Of course, it wasn't hard to persuade the Argentines to do it as long as they knew the Soviet Union was going to back'm up & help them with Soviet spy satellites, reconnaisance & war materiel, political support, international opinion & their international Communist propaganda machine!
50. SO I'M CONVINCED NOW THAT THE SOVIETS WERE RESPONSIBLE IN THE FIRST PLACE, THAT THEY SAW THEIR OPPORTUNITY TO SPLIT LATIN AMERICA WIDE-OPEN & SPLIT THE WEST IN TWO & they themselves instigated the attack by the Argentines, just as much as if the Argentines had been their satellite state & under their control! That's my opinion‚ that the Soviets started this war by encouraging Argentina to attack the Falklands & promising their backing‚ otherwise I don't think they hardly would have dared, knowing what a big mess it might get'm into. What a clever trick! It surprised everybody!
51. BUT THE SOVIETS UNDOUBTEDLY PROMISED THEM SUPPORT, propaganda, political, international opinion, materiel‚ spy satellites, surveillance, reconnaissance, everything, & were probably responsible for starting this war. How clever & how concealed, hm? Things like that don't come out usually till later & may never come out, but I'm convinced of it. Why else would they put two spy satellites over the Falklands two days before the attack?—Then one on the day of the attack & two just a few days later?—Unless they knew it was going to happen & were expecting it & were party to it, conniving with the Argentines! Well, praise the Lord! All things work together for good to them that love the Lord, & it could be the beginning of World War III very easily.
52. WELL ANYHOW, THE SUM & SUBSTANCE OF ALL THAT IS that I am now convinced from all evidence‚ & I went back over the history of the negotiations & the peace efforts of Haig & the chronological order of these events, & from all I can see & figure, Russia was cognizant of the fact that the Argentines were going to attack, to say the least, & to say the most she probably even put'm up to it! In fact, it could've been a part of her World strategy & all plotted & planned a long time ago as her very clever method to divide & conquer the West!
53. RUSSIA DIVIDES FRIENDS & CAUSES THEM TO GO TO WAR AT EACH OTHER'S THROATS WHILE SHE SITS BACK & LAUGHS & WATCHES THEM DESTROY EACH OTHER & help her World conquest by isolating & surrounding America with nothing but enemies! If so, this is one of the cleverest pieces of strategy that Russia has ever perpetrated & one of the grand finals which will probably either precede the final finale' of the major World War III itself or actually escalate into it.
54. I BEGIN TO SEE HOW SIMPLE & HOW EASY IT WAS FOR THE BIG BULLY TO SIC THE LITTLE BOYS ON EACH OTHER so as to get them fighting with each other, friends at that—well, more or less friends. Both are supposed to be members of the West, supposed to be both anti-Communist, supposed to be allies against World Communism, blah, blah. But instead of that, Russia manages to inspire one of them to attack the other, & the other one of course reacts & retaliates. What Russia of course probably didn't know was just how much retaliation or reaction that the Iron Lady would come up with‚ but is probably pleased even more that she has reacted as strongly as she has, if not overreacted, & Russia's overjoyed!
55. ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IT'S AS I SAID BEFORE, "TAILS I WIN, HEADS YOU LOSE" & a no-lose game Russia can't help but win. Russia's offer undoubtedly being to the Argentines: One way or the other, one of us gets what we want, or maybe both of us. You get your Falklands & we get our war, & we also divide friends & we divide the Western powers. Here we now have North America & Europe pitting themselves in sympathy against what amounts to Argentina & Latin America, & thereby dividing North & South America & also dividing all of Latin America against the North—a big Western split!
56. IT BECOMES A NORTH–SOUTH FRACAS, WHICH COULDN'T MAKE THE RUSSIANS ANY HAPPIER, WHILE THEY SIT BACK & DON'T HAVE TO HARDLY DO A THING BUT ENJOY IT ALL! Maybe they send a few messages of intelligence & reconnaissance & keep the Argentines apprised of British movements, & at the same time maybe send them a few little bits of equipment to help them out. They already sent a plane load from Cuba of sophisticated radar & technical spy equipment, etc. So with a minimum of effort & a minimum of material help & a maximum of siccing them on each other, Russia's enjoying the show!
57. RUSSIA HAS MANAGED TO ACCOMPLISH PROBABLY ONE OF THE CLEVEREST STRATEGIC VICTORIES IN WORLD HISTORY, particularly if it manages to split the Western allies & perpetrate World War III in her favour‚ Russia's favour. So we have a dilemma into which the West has been thrust by a seemingly insignificant little couple of islands way down near the Antarctic Circle, but which Russia has used as a tool to aggravate two friends to fight each other & as a result divide the whole Western World, North from South‚ & split the West & encircle & isolate the U.S. in such a way as it has never been before!—Just as Khrushchev promised!
58. SO I DON'T SEE ANY WAY THIS CAN WORK OUT EXCEPT THAT RUSSIA IS GOING TO WIN A STRATEGIC VICTORY & has already done so just by inspiring the Argentines to attack the Falklands. I don't doubt that they planned the whole thing & egged them on & plotted it & had it all worked out. How else would she know when they were going to attack & put up a couple of satellites a few days before, & one on the day they attacked & two a few days later & quite a few since then? She's helping them all the way along!
59. SO IT LOOKS LIKE RUSSIA IS BEHIND THE WHOLE THING & IS DELIBERATELY STARTING WORLD WAR III IN A VERY UNEXPECTED PART OF THE GLOBE by dividing the Western allies & thereby weakening the whole Western Alliance, dividing friends, dividing North from South, North America & Europe from South America, & completing what Khrushchev predicted as the final encirclement & isolation of the U.S.!
60. —ALL OF WHICH MAKES AN IDEAL SET-UP FOR FINAL WORLD WAR III, & A PROPAGANDA VICTORY FOR RUSSIA IN BRANDING THE WEST AS THE AGGRESSORS, as the villains & the attackers & as the oppressors, & thereby winning the biggest victory, the winning of hearts to her way of thinking against the West, against the North, against the Allies, & primarily against the U.S. & Britain, which she apparently considers her greatest enemies. By so doing she's already managed to win a tremendous victory! Russia has already won the propaganda, political & international sympathy battle by so dividing Western friends.
61. PTL! GBYA & THAT'S THE WAY I SEE IT FROM HERE. May the Lord help us‚ & I think I've already analysed what I think we ought to do about it: Get out! Get out of the Nuke North & go to the Safer South—especially the South East!—India & Southeast Asia! Maybe this'll get some of you Commonwealthers out of South America into the East!—Where you're much more needed in some places only you can go.—And where most of the World lives—& most of it that's gonna survive!—Two billion souls, compared to the West's one billion—half of whom may not survive! So you'd better hurry or you may be too late! God bless & help you escape to the fields! Do it NOW!—TODAY!—Tomorrow will be too late! GHU!—Love,—Dad.